US President Donald Trump is considering possible military actions against Iran.
It is reported that during the attacks, Iranian leadership and security structures would be targeted. Washington holds these entities responsible for the killing of tens of thousands of protesters.
According to Modern.az, two American sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Trump intends to create conditions for “regime change” with these actions. According to the sources, a more extensive attack is also among the options being discussed. This attack could target Iran's nuclear program or ballistic missile capabilities. No final decision has been made yet.
An official speaking to CNN stated that the most desirable scenario for Trump is a swift and powerful strike. This strike should compel Iran to accept US terms.
A high-ranking Israeli official, however, stated that air strikes alone are not sufficient to overthrow the regime. According to him, if such a goal exists, ground troops are necessary. The official noted that even the removal of the supreme leader would not automatically change Iran's political course.
BBC also analyzed possible development scenarios. The first scenario is limited strikes followed by a democratic transition. However, experience shows that this model was not successful in Libya and Iraq.
Another option is called the “Venezuela model”. In this case, the regime remains but partially softens its policies. Experts do not consider this realistic either.
One of the most likely scenarios is the weakening of the regime and the formation of military rule in the country. US strikes creating chaos increases this probability.
Another risk is Iran's retaliatory strikes. US bases and allied countries could become targets. Iran could use ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Iran could also respond by laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This would mean a serious blow to global energy supply. Currently, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this strait.
The most dangerous scenario, however, is the country plunging into complete chaos. This could create a humanitarian and migration crisis for the region. BBC notes that Trump's hasty decision-making to avoid losing military prestige could lead to a long-term war.
