Inflation, the rapid depreciation of the national currency against the dollar, and the rising cost of essential food and fuel are considered the main sparks of the social protests that began in Iran in the last days of last year.
Although the events have evolved over time from social protests to the overthrow of the current mullah regime, instances of violence in the demonstrations are increasing. It is claimed that our compatriots from South Azerbaijan were not active in the events where at least 36 people died and hundreds were injured. Numerous reports regarding this can be found on social networks. On the other hand, there are reports that the Iranian authorities are deploying numerous forces to Tabriz, Ardabil, and other cities where our compatriots live densely.
In this context, Modern.az contacted socio-political figures who were forced to emigrate from South Azerbaijan but maintain close ties with their homeland and are aware of the local population's approach.
Political commentator Mahsa Mehdili from South Azerbaijan stated that South Azerbaijanis are not actively participating in the demonstrations at the current stage. However, according to her, it is not correct to evaluate this position as passivity:
“At this stage, the stance that appears passive from the outside is, in fact, an active and conscious position demonstrated by not joining the Tehran-centric protests. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, South Azerbaijan has been at the forefront of many protest processes. However, the attitude of both the Tehran-centric opposition and the current regime towards the South Azerbaijan issue is virtually the same, which leads to a serious trust problem. Precisely for this reason, it is not correct to evaluate the current position as passivity; on the contrary, it shows that the South Azerbaijan national movement is standing in the right place at the right time.”
The Political Commentator noted that just as the regime denies the South Azerbaijan national movement, its rights, and its existence, the Tehran-centric opposition exhibits the same approach:
“For this reason, South Azerbaijanis, based on their historical experiences, prefer a Tabriz-centric political line, and this position is a principled stance formed historically. The central government must absolutely listen to the voices of protest. The government cannot achieve any results by closing its ears; if there are demands and rights to be ensured, bridges must be built in this direction, and real grounds for dialogue must be created. Otherwise, if the current situation continues, chaos will deepen further, and new, different factors will enter the process.”
Mahsa Mehdili concluded by noting that it is too early to express a definitive opinion on the final outcomes at the current stage: “Because not only internal factors but also external factors can influence the processes. In this regard, it is more appropriate to carefully monitor the course of events.”
However, Sadiq Isabayli, a member of the Board of Directors of the South Azerbaijan National Liberation Front (CAMAC), stated that the main reason for the continuation of mass protests primarily in Persian regions and areas inhabited by some small ethnic groups is the high cost of living and inflation in the country. According to him, people have lost hope in the political authorities and are no longer able to cover their household expenses.
S. Isabayli noted that the question of which direction the protests will take is currently the main topic of discussion, and certain efforts are being made to transform economic and social discontent into political discontent:
“Some political currents are trying to bring the ongoing processes to the agenda within the framework of their own interests, and the idea is being spread that the mass protests are aimed at the collapse of the regime and the formation of an alternative government. In this context, Reza Pahlavi, a remnant of the former Pahlavi regime, is being brought to the forefront more, and propaganda is being carried out in the media in this direction.
There are attempts to change the content of protest slogans, direct the process in any desired direction, and mobilize Persian-language media abroad along a unified line. The goal is to highlight the protests in Persian regions and present non-Persian nations as part of these processes. However, according to him, non-Persian nations, including South Azerbaijan, are not joining this scenario.”
S. Isabayli emphasized that South Azerbaijan and its main cities are approaching the ongoing processes with restraint and have clearly stated their position:
With the slogan “Azerbaijan is honor, Pahlavi is dishonor,” Azerbaijanis have openly declared that they will not support the Pahlavi line. This position is formed on the basis of mother tongue, national, and political aspirations, and South Azerbaijan does not intend to act within the interests of Persian-centric regimes in subsequent processes.
Currents within the regime and groups affiliated with Reza Pahlavi, as well as media outlets, are trying to direct South Azerbaijan according to their interests, creating the impression that “Azerbaijan has also joined this process.” The fact that other nations are not joining these processes indicates that these peoples will act with their own slogans and political positions.”
Sadiq Isabayli stated that South Azerbaijan intends to move towards its independence and stability:
“According to him, the Azerbaijan-centric political movement aims for independence and the establishment of a national state in South Azerbaijan, does not intend to give the representation of statehood to Tehran, and wants to choose its own state model. He stated that they will not be part of any political, ideological, or Persian-centric racist games. There is the complexity of the processes, the influence of external forces, the activities carried out by “Sepahi-Pasdaran,” and the arrest of national activists and leaders who can influence South Azerbaijan. The mullah regime is trying to prevent the activation of national movements, but this is a serious mistake. Because the South Azerbaijan national movements control the processes, and the people declare that they will only take to the streets with their own slogans. The slogan “Freedom, Movement, National Government” is the main political line of South Azerbaijan, and there is no place for Persianism in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijanis state that they will not stand with the Pahlavi regime, which committed genocide, and the mullah regime that supports it. Certain processes are underway internally and externally, and South Azerbaijan will openly express its national-political will at the appropriate time.”
