On December 25, 2024, the Caspian sky witnessed another tragedy. An Embraer E190AR passenger aircraft, registration number 4K-AZ65, belonging to "Azerbaijan Airlines" (AZAL), crashed near the city of Aktau while performing regular flight J2-8243 from Baku to Grozny.
The starting point of the tragedy was the sky over Chechnya. The aircraft, preparing to land at Grozny airport, unexpectedly faced the loss of GPS signals and external interference. Thanks to the heroism of the pilots, the heavily damaged aircraft managed to change its direction over the Caspian Sea towards Kazakhstan, but it could not reach its final destination. The plane crashed just 3 kilometers from Aktau International Airport. As a result of this terrible accident, 38 people, including both pilots — experienced captain Igor Kshnyakin and co-pilot Aleksandr Kalyaninov — died.
From the first days of the incident, the Russian side put forward several different and contradictory versions to evade responsibility: official Moscow's initial reaction was to claim that the accident occurred as a result of a bird strike to the engine. However, numerous shell and shrapnel marks on the aircraft's fuselage refuted this claim. A few months later, when the facts could no longer be hidden, President Vladimir Putin admitted that the aircraft had been "damaged" by Russian air defense. However, he tried to present it as an "unfortunate incident" that occurred during an operation against Ukrainian drones. It was claimed that Russian air defense systems (especially "Pantsir-S") allegedly exploded missiles near the passenger aircraft while tracking Ukrainian UAVs. Currently, the Russian Investigative Committee is also trying to portray the case as "negligent management" or "technical coordination failure," thereby attempting to keep the military personnel responsible for the crime outside of accountability.
This incident, which resulted in the downing of a passenger aircraft belonging to "Azerbaijan Airlines" (AZAL), is not merely a technical error, but also a clear example of the unprofessionalism and indifference to human life of the Russian military command. Despite a year having passed since the incident, the Kremlin's stance - the concealment of the culprits and the de facto suspension of the investigation - is testing Baku's patience.
According to recent information, the Russian Investigative Committee has suspended the investigation against Major General Aleksandr Tolopilo. This individual, who is the deputy commander of the 11th Air Defense Army, is directly responsible for giving the order to target the passenger airliner. Interestingly, the Russian side is covering this up with a "modernization consultation," hinting that Tolopilo will not receive any punishment.
Here, the role of Aleksandr Bastrykin, Chairman of the Russian Investigative Committee, should be specifically noted. Bastrykin's activities in recent years have been characterized more by ultra-nationalist and politically motivated approaches than by legal professionalism. The lack of transparency in the investigation and the concealment of facts are indicators of the unprofessionalism of the institution led by Bastrykin and the spirit of discrimination against the lives of Azerbaijani citizens. The closure of the criminal case within Russia does not fulfill the requirements of international law; on the contrary, it means protecting the crime.
Although the Russian side tried to cover up the incident as an "internal matter," the preliminary results of the international commission established by the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan (with the participation of Brazilian and Azerbaijani experts) proved everything. The aircraft's "black box" recordings and fuselage analysis showed that: the aircraft was exposed to two external blast waves while over the city of Grozny, hydraulic systems sequentially failed, which is only possible due to the impact of missile fragments, and foreign metal particles (missile fragments) not belonging to the aircraft's structure were found among the debris.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's admission in October 2025 during his meeting with Ilham Aliyev that the aircraft had been "damaged" by Russian air defense was, in fact, an official admission of guilt. However, the lack of follow-up on this admission in the legal sphere is prompting Azerbaijan to take more decisive steps. As Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov noted, the receipt of an official letter regarding the suspension of the investigation was an unexpected step for Baku, and that letter has been duly responded to. The artificial prolongation of the process could mark the beginning of the next stage for Azerbaijan — an appeal to the International Court of Justice.
Here, an important parallel should be recalled. In 2001, when a Russian "Sibir" airline Tu-154 aircraft was accidentally shot down by Ukrainian military personnel during exercises over the Black Sea, official Moscow raised a global outcry, calling the incident a "grave crime of international terrorism." At that time, Russia demanded both compensation and the severest punishment for all culprits.
Today, however, the roles have changed. When the same incident is committed by Russia, they portray it as a "worker's error" and reward their generals. This is a classic policy of double standards. Russia must understand that international law should operate based on principles of justice, not on the size of states.
The accidental targeting of passenger aircraft by air defense systems during wartime or periods of tension is not the first such incident in history. However, in each of these incidents, states, no matter how difficult it was, eventually took responsibility, issued official apologies, and paid millions of dollars in compensation. Russia, however, not only fails to punish the guilty general but even tries to "erase" the incident from memory.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly emphasized in his speeches that Russia must admit its guilt, punish the culprits, and pay compensation. For Baku, this issue is not merely an airplane crash, but a matter of state dignity and the protection of its citizens. The Russian side must expedite its compensation promises and, most importantly, ensure the legal punishment of the guilty military personnel.
Otherwise, Azerbaijan's appeal to international arbitration will deal another heavy blow to Russia's already damaged international image. Justice may be delayed, but it will certainly be established.
