“The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed an agreement in Washington in August 2025, committing to ratify a peace treaty with President Trump and normalize relations. The ratification process was expected to take approximately 12 months. However, almost half of this period has passed without any significant progress, and several key issues remain unresolved. Four key issues will determine whether this opportunity is realized.”
Modern.az reports that these views were expressed by American analyst Luke Coffey, a leading researcher at the Hudson Institute think tank, in an article he wrote for Arab News.
According to the author, as Armenia prepares for parliamentary elections in June, the first test will be Pashinyan's ability to maintain political stability.
“The elections are likely to be contentious, and post-election political stability will play a critical role in advancing the peace process.”
According to the analyst, a sensitive but extremely important issue related to the Constitution of Armenia is also crucial for the ratification of the peace treaty.
“Azerbaijan has openly stated that this issue must be resolved before Baku ratifies a final peace agreement,” the American analyst noted, referring to the territorial claim against Azerbaijan in the Armenian Constitution.
Luke Coffey stated that the next issue urgently requiring progress is the “Trump route” (Zangezur corridor).
As per Trump's proposal, the operation of the 42-kilometer section of the Zangezur corridor will be entrusted to a private international consortium supported by the United States.
“Despite Armenia officially agreeing to this concept, no practical steps have been taken for its implementation. Construction has not begun; roads and railway lines have not been built or repaired. Aliyev recently expressed concern over the lack of progress and warned that further delays could undermine confidence in the peace agreement. If construction does not commence on Armenian territory in 2026, the validity of the agreement could be severely weakened,” the analyst noted.
According to Luke Coffey, the next issue is the pressure from Russia and Iran on Yerevan ahead of the elections in Armenia.
“Neither Moscow nor Tehran welcomes Washington's mediating role in the peace process, as both countries view the South Caucasus as part of their traditional spheres of influence. The route proposed by Trump is particularly sensitive for both capitals.
Russia is wary of any U.S.-backed presence, even if implemented by the private sector, in the region where it currently conducts patrol services on the Armenia-Iran border. Tehran also uses the same 42-kilometer area as a key trade route heading north. Thus, a U.S.-backed transit corridor could intersect with Iran's commercial interests and Russia's security commitments, creating tensions that neither country desires.
Therefore, maintaining the status quo is in the interests of both Moscow and Tehran,” stated the U.S. think tank employee.
In his opinion, despite these challenges, 2026 could go down in history as the year when peace was established between Armenia and Azerbaijan:
“However, this will require sustained international engagement and continuous pressure on both sides to fulfill their commitments.”
A.Qorxmaz
