Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7 this year. The official registration of political parties and alliances is planned for April. After this, an active election campaign will begin.
Some political parties expected to participate in the elections are listed below:
- The "Civil Contract" Party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
- Robert Kocharyan's "Hayastan" bloc
- Artur Vanetsyan's "I Have Honor" alliance
- Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" Party
- Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia" Party.
- Some other parties and political initiatives.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, meanwhile, has already started his election campaign and continues to visit regions.
The steps he will take to be re-elected are a noteworthy nuance.
In a statement to Modern.az, political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu stated that what currently strengthens Pashinyan's positions is the opposition's inability to achieve unity:
“Indeed, the pre-election struggle in Armenia has intensified. Opposition parties are holding consecutive congresses and putting forward their candidates for Prime Minister. What strengthens Pashinyan's position is that the opposition fails to achieve unity. It is true that there are various initiatives. For example, the Armenian National Congress, led by ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, can be mentioned. He is trying to unite with Samvel Karapetyan's party. This is because the Armenian National Congress will not be able to gain many votes on its own. Karapetyan, however, has a higher probability of gaining more votes.
Or "Dashnaktsutyun" is forming an alliance with Robert Kocharyan. But the opposition does not have a complete alliance. If the opposition had such an alliance, of course, it would be somewhat difficult for Pashinyan. But I do not believe that the forces opposing Pashinyan will be able to form a full alliance and participate in the parliamentary elections with a single list. This further strengthens Pashinyan's positions.
Pashinyan also uses certain methods. He has practically already started his election campaign. He travels by metro, by bus, meets people in restaurants, and exchanges ideas. This also serves to further strengthen Pashinyan's positions. At the same time, Pashinyan rightly frightens Armenian society by stating that the election of radicals will lead to war with Azerbaijan and notes that the losses of Armenians in a new war will be greater. He is absolutely right on this matter. That is, if the Armenian opposition comes and nullifies all of Pashinyan's agreements, this will already lead to a new war. It is true that the opposition also uses cunning. They do not utter the word 'war'. Because they know that Armenian voters are afraid of war. But Armenian voters also understand that if someone like Kocharyan and Karapetyan comes to power, Armenia may experience tension with Azerbaijan. This actually works in Pashinyan's favor. My prediction is that Pashinyan's party will again win first place. But one of the main questions is whether the votes he gains will be enough to form a government alone, or will there be a need to form a coalition? That is, the probability of Pashinyan's party winning is high, but whether he can form a government alone is somewhat questionable.”
E. Shahinoglu spoke about Nikol Pashinyan's possible steps to avoid a coalition:
“Whether a coalition will be formed will be determined after the election. Looking at it this way, not all candidates will be radical opposition. Even before the election, Pashinyan can form an alliance with several pro-Western parties. After the election, the situation may change depending on the parties that enter parliament. Negotiations can be held with some of them. Of course, Pashinyan will try very hard to form a government alone. For this, he must gain enough votes. Moreover, he is hopeful for Western support. This support will manifest itself both financially and in the struggle against Russia's influence. Because as the election approaches, Russia openly tries to interfere in the Armenian election and support the radical opposition financially and in other ways. Furthermore, it will also organize cyberattacks. In neutralizing these, Pashinyan relies on both America and Europe. It will also benefit Pashinyan that a major summit of the European Political Community will be held in Yerevan in May. European leaders will come there. That is, the comprehensive support of European leaders for Pashinyan can also help him gain additional votes.”
The political scientist also touched upon the issue of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's participation in the European Political Community summit to be held in Yerevan:
“Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will most likely not attend the summit. This is because Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will also not participate in this summit. The reason for this is that a peace agreement has not yet been signed. If a peace agreement had been signed, yes, both Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would have attended the summit. Nevertheless, it is likely that both countries may participate in the European Political Community Summit in some form, for example, at the level of foreign ministers. I repeat that I do not expect Erdoğan to attend the summit. This is because Turkey conducts its policy towards Armenia in coordination with Azerbaijan.”
