The global healthcare system may face a severe shortage of doctors in the next 10 years. A significant portion of doctors retiring and an aging population will increase the demand for medical services. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), by 2030, the shortage of healthcare personnel worldwide will exceed 11 million people. This is equivalent to more than 15 percent of the approximately 70 million specialists currently working in the sector.
Modern.az reports that WHO experts, who analyzed future demand and supply in the medical services market in 122 countries, concluded that most countries in the world will face a shortage of doctors in their healthcare systems in the coming years.
One of the main reasons for the increasing demand for medical services will be the aging population. By 2030, people aged 60 and over are expected to constitute one-sixth of the world's population - 1.4 billion people. This will lead to an increase in the number of chronic non-communicable diseases. Currently, these diseases account for the main share in the structure of causes of death.
According to WHO experts, the level of healthcare worker provision in the world has increased by 52 percent in the last 20 years. This indicator includes doctors, nurses, midwifery specialists, dentists, and pharmacists.
Thus, in 2006, there were an average of 44.8 healthcare professionals per 10,000 people, while in 2025, this figure rose to 67.9.
However, a significant portion of doctors will retire in the near future. In high-income countries, one out of every three specialists will leave their job for this reason in the next 10 years. Globally, one out of every four doctors is expected to retire.
According to WHO forecasts, by 2030, the shortage of personnel in the healthcare sector will reach 11.1 million people. This is more than 15 percent of the 70 million specialists currently working in the sector. The most serious shortage is expected in the world's largest economies, including the USA, China, and European Union countries.
Hassum Diallo, acting head of the human resources policy and data department at the WHO Academy, believes that measures for planning, training, employment, and retention of medical workers in the healthcare system should be improved starting now.
Currently, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand offer competitive salaries to medical workers coming to the country. These salaries are comparable to the earnings of local medical workers with similar qualifications in those countries. In addition, there are programs for housing provision, assistance in obtaining a residence permit, and subsequent formalization of citizenship.
Russia will also be involved in the competition for doctors. According to the Russian Ministry of Health, in 2026, the country will need 23,000 doctors and 63,000 specialists in mid-level medical personnel. However, the total number of people working in the healthcare sector is more than 1 million.
Russian specialists note the shortage of key medical specialties such as surgeons, neurologists, and internists in the national healthcare system.
Russian experts cited low wages, difficult work, emotional burden, as well as a decrease in the prestige and respect for the medical profession in Russian society, among the main reasons for the shortage of medical workers in the country.
