The Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out one of the largest-scale offensives in Donetsk Oblast since 2022, when the Russian army lost territories in Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Modern.az reports, citing foreign media, that within the framework of the “Vivaldi” operation, the Ukrainian army forced Russian forces to retreat in the salient near Lyman, creating a threat of encirclement for Russian units advancing towards Sloviansk. According to OSINT analyst Klemant Molen's calculations, the Ukrainian army regained control of twice as much territory during this operation as it liberated during the counter-offensive in 2023.
It is noted that three years ago, after Ukraine received tanks and other military equipment from NATO, one of its main goals was to cut Russia's land corridor to Crimea and gain access to the Sea of Azov. This was planned to divide the Russian troop grouping into two parts. However, the operation failed as it was not possible to break through Russia's multi-layered defense line.
Now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been able to regain 240 square kilometers of territory controlled by Russian forces in the Donbas direction, which is of primary importance to the Kremlin. This is stated in the calculations of Rochan Consulting.
In addition, Russian troops have lost control of another 430 square kilometers of territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since February. Klemant Molen wrote that the Russian army's “West” grouping suffered a “significant defeat” this year.
According to him, Ukrainian forces are close to ensuring the security of Sloviansk, one of the two main cities of Donbas, and have pushed the front line away from the city. Lyman, as a key strategic point for northern Donbas, is now well-defended and its supply capabilities are protected. The commander of the 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andriy Biletsky, announced on Monday that another 51 square kilometers of territory had been liberated and 250 Russian servicemen had been taken prisoner within the framework of the third phase of the “Vivaldi” operation.
According to Biletsky, the Russian side was convinced that the main blow would be delivered in the Shandryholove–Zelena Dolyna direction.
“This forced them to senselessly expend their reserves on counter-attacks in that very direction. Russian forces did not expect the real blow, that is, the attack in the Novoye direction,” he said.
According to the commander, robotic kamikaze complexes were also used during the breakthrough of the defense line. According to experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine's achievements on the front line may force Vladimir Putin to reconsider his strategy for victory in the war.
ISW states that if earlier the Russian President hoped to achieve the collapse of the Ukrainian army's defense in the direction of the city-fortresses of Donbas, currently Moscow relies more on a strategy of long-range strikes in the winter of 2026–2027. According to experts, the goal is to force Ukraine to surrender.
