Although a number of high-ranking and influential officials have been killed in military operations conducted by the US and Israel in Iran since February 28, the country's governing system maintains its functionality and strategic decision-making capability in wartime conditions.
Modern.az reports, citing “Reuters”, that the Islamic Republic of Iran, formed after the 1979 revolution, has established a complex governance system where power rests not solely on individuals but on interconnected and multi-tiered institutions. The main pillar of this system is a general commitment to preserving the theocratic structure.
Is the Supreme Leader truly the main figure?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who served as Iran's Supreme Leader for many years, was killed in one of the first strikes of the war. Khamenei, who held this position since 1989, had absolute authority in the state system, and all major decisions were made with his approval.
According to the principle of “Velayat-e Faqih”, Iran's official ideology, the supreme leader is considered the earthly representative of the 12th Imam of Shia Islam, who is in occultation, and possesses both religious and political authority. His administration –“beyt” – has the ability to directly intervene by controlling various sectors of the state apparatus.
As the new leader, Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has inherited this position and its extensive powers. However, he does not possess the same level of influence and unquestioning obedience that his father commanded. Furthermore, it is presumed that he may be dependent on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mojtaba Khamenei, who was wounded during the strikes, was presented on state television as a “war veteran”. Despite more than three weeks having passed since his appointment, his continued absence from public appearances and the release of only two written statements raise questions about his health.
How central is the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased its influence over decades and, in the current wartime conditions, particularly after Khamenei's assassination and the appointment of a new leader, has begun to play an even more central role in strategic decision-making.
This institution had prepared in advance for the risk of leadership destruction and possesses a “mosaic”-type organizational structure. A replacement for each commander has been predetermined, and units can operate independently.
Although many high-ranking commanders have been killed recently, experienced individuals have been appointed in their place, and they are capable of managing complex military operations. This continuity stems from the Corps' experience gained in both the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) and various conflicts in the Middle East.
What is the role of the political leadership?
Iran's political system combines religious leadership with elected presidential and parliamentary institutions. These bodies, along with the Revolutionary Guards, play a significant role in governing the country. The killing of Ali Larijani, Khamenei's chief advisor, is considered a serious loss for the government. His ability to establish connections between various centers of power and conduct international negotiations was of particular importance. Although experienced politicians are currently available, some of them are likely to hold more hardline positions.
Who are the remaining key figures?
Ahmad Vahidi, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (SEPAH). He has been an influential figure in this institution for many years, serving as defense minister.
Ismail Qaani, head of the "Quds" Force. Currently, I. Qaani manages Iran's relations with its allies in the region.
Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Naval Forces. He played a significant role in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz when the war began.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament, is also considered one of the country's most influential political figures.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, head of the Judiciary. Gholam-Hossein is known in Iran as a hardliner and is considered a leading figure among radicals.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, although the highest-ranking directly elected official, has limited powers. Nevertheless, he is considered an influential figure in the country and the region.
Saeed Jalili, former security official, known for his radical stance.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a leading member of the Guardian Council.
Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is the only leading figure in the Iranian government who plays a key role in negotiations with the West and other major powers.
