The ceasefire announced for a two-week period between the US and Iran, starting from April 7-8, 2026, continues. The duration of this ceasefire, initially planned until April 22, was extended for diplomatic negotiations. The temporary ceasefire is expected to last until early May.
During this period, the social situation in Iran, especially the condition of our compatriots in South Azerbaijan, and their expectations from the ongoing processes, are of interest.
Ahmed Obalı, founder and head of Gunaz.TV, originally from South Azerbaijan, stated that the damage to Iran is very severe and deep:
“A number of steel and oil refineries have ceased operations. Factories and plants that sent materials to Iran's missile and drone facilities have also been hit. At the same time, all of Iran's military facilities have been struck. Workers in these facilities have become unemployed. Along with these damages, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is also harming Iran. Due to this blockade, goods are not entering the country, the country cannot sell its goods, and on the other hand, Iran's oil storage facilities are gradually filling up. If oil storage facilities fill up, it will be necessary to reduce production after a short period. Thus, if production in Iran's old oil wells stops, they will either cease operations for a long time or collapse permanently. Therefore, Iran cannot officially pay its workers, including the Basij. Additionally, trade in the country has stopped. Because of this, laborers cannot find work. The most affected are the laborers. They cannot bring bread to their families in the evening. The government, along with this, cannot prevent inflation. According to the government, inflation has increased by 50%. On one hand, money is not coming in, and on the other hand, everything is expensive. Currently, 1 dollar is equivalent to 180,000 tomans.”
A. Obalı noted that some medicines and food items are either unavailable or have become extremely expensive:
“It is unbelievable that food products would decrease and become unavailable in two months. This means that whoever controls the warehouse is restricting its supply to sell goods at a higher price. Large goods are also under the control of the state, especially the IRGC. In this matter, the state itself should be considered guilty. The unavailability or high cost of medicines is directly the fault of the IRGC. Because medicine factories have not been hit, and medicines coming from abroad are still in the hands of the IRGC. The IRGC benefits from the situation from two perspectives. It sells those products at a high price, and on the other hand, it gains points by blaming the US for the situation. The temporary ceasefire has had no benefit in social matters; on the contrary, the situation has worsened. In this regard, the nation is very worried.”
A. Obalı stated that Azerbaijanis and other nations in Iran are very concerned about the inconclusive ceasefire:
“Because without any results, the situation is deteriorating both politically and socially. The little freedom the people had gained has been lost. The forces governing the country, including the IRGC, have become stronger in a more extreme way. From a political perspective, there is still no light visible for the future. The nation wants this regime to weaken and be replaced by a more acceptable government that understands the people's problems, grants them freedom, and pays attention to their social situation. So far, this has not only not happened, but on the contrary, the situation has worsened. The nation cannot be satisfied without the regime leaving. If the regime does not fall, and the US reaches an agreement, the war ends, and the social situation improves even slightly, the nation will still be dissatisfied. Because after so much difficulty and unemployment, if this regime remains in power, it will be even worse. Our nation thinks this way.”
Southern political commentator Karim Asghari also noted that the war between the US-Israel and Iran has most affected Iranian citizens:
“Of course, our people in South Azerbaijan have also been very seriously affected by this, especially in terms of economic and household concerns. Since this war began, although the Iranian government claims there are no problems with food, food and other products, including medicine, have increased several times over these months. There is one issue here: the US and Israeli attacks have been directed at military targets, and civilian deaths are at a minimum level.”
K. Asghari stated that the most anticipated issue for Azerbaijanis in the South is the outcome of the war:
“There is a group in South Azerbaijan that supports the Islamic Republic of Iran, albeit slightly. But apart from this, the population is against the Islamic Republic of Iran. These people also want the war to end soon, a new regime to come to power, and to escape the crisis. The fear of the people is that even if the US and Israel achieve their desires regarding the nuclear issue, the current regime will continue its power. In such a case, the regime will continue its power with the same, or perhaps even greater, cruelty. Also, there will be a much more severe crisis in Iran than now. This could lead to an economic crisis and scarcity in Iran. Perhaps the people are worried about the famine experienced in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan also occurring in Iran.”
