Only one of Russia's "Oreshnik" type medium-range ballistic missiles used against Ukraine remains combat-ready.
Modern.az reports that this information is included in the June 16 report of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts, citing a study by Ukraine's "Dallas Analytics" company, stated that after the first strike on Ukraine in November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin was allegedly satisfied with the missile's impact and ordered additional production to begin.
According to the information, four missiles were planned for production in 2025, but by 2026, three of them had already been used: one missile was used against Lviv on the night of January 9, and two missiles were used against Belaya Tserkov in the Kyiv region on the night of May 24. One of them is reported to have fallen in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region.
According to ISW's assessment, only one "Oreshnik" missile from the initial batch may remain combat-capable.
The "Dallas Analytics" study notes that after active training related to the deployment of the complex at the Kapustin Yar test site, the Ukrainian Air Force issued an urgent warning on June 12, 2026, about a possible new missile attack. It is reported that this attack could be carried out with the last missile produced.
It is also claimed that quality control protocols were violated in the production process in the Russian defense industry, which negatively affected the missile's accuracy. According to the information, a malfunction in the Soviet-era GU-503 aviation gyroscope caused the missile to deviate tens of kilometers from its target.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on June 12, called on citizens to be vigilant due to the threat of air attacks. Media reports that the US provided intelligence to Ukraine about a possible attack threat with the "Oreshnik" missile, and preparations by the Russian side were recorded.
