The pre-election struggle in Armenia has entered an active phase, and the main political forces are trying to work as intensively as possible with their electorates.
According to Modern.az, Armenian political technologist Vigen Akopyan commented on the pre-election situation.
According to his assessment, there is currently uncompromising competition, and each political force tries to emphasize its advantages, as well as influence target voter groups.
According to Akopyan, there are 4-5 political forces with a real chance of being represented in the next parliament.
According to him, the "Civil Contract" Party led by Nikol Pashinyan will most likely pass the election barrier, but will not be able to secure a parliamentary majority.
"Studies show that the 'Civil Contract' will enter parliament, but will not be able to collect 50+1 votes," he said. According to Akopyan's assessment, the ruling party will not be able to win enough mandates to form a government alone in parliament, or will need a coalition.
The political technologist stated that other forces with a chance to enter parliament are the "Strong Armenia" bloc (leader Samvel Karapetyan), the "Armenia" bloc (leader Robert Kocharyan), the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (chairman Gagik Sarukyan) and the "Wings of Unity" Party (chairman Arman Tatoyan).
According to him, each political force works with its unique electorate base. If the "Armenia" bloc mainly appeals to voters with more radical sentiments, "Strong Armenia" tries to work with broader segments of society, paying special attention to the country's socio-economic development, industry, and future vision.
Vigen Akopyan believes that voter turnout can have a decisive impact on the election results.
"If, as sociological surveys show, voter turnout is at least around 60%, I believe that the current government has no chance of being re-elected. Currently, the main issue is to ensure the participation of voters in the election," he added.
The political technologist considers the activity of Yerevan voters particularly important. According to him, more than 840 thousand voters are concentrated here.
According to Akopyan, this is why most opposition forces focus not only on presenting their programs during the election campaign, but also on mobilizing citizens to participate in the voting.
Parliamentary elections in Armenia will be held on June 7, 2026. The campaign period will continue until June 5.
The Central Election Commission has registered 19 political forces to participate in the elections.
In Armenia, the government is formed based on the results of parliamentary elections. According to current legislation, to form a government alone, one must have a majority in parliament.
These are the main rules for the 2026 parliamentary elections:
To enter parliament:
- A party must collect at least 4% of the votes;
- A bloc of 2-3 parties must collect at least 8%;
- For a bloc of 4 or more parties, the threshold is 10%;
To form a government alone, more than 50% (50+1%) of parliamentary mandates are needed. The Prime Minister is elected by a parliamentary majority.
- Armenia has a "stable majority" mechanism. If the winning force gains the right to form a government, but the share of mandates is less than 52%, the law allows for the provision of additional mandates to ensure a "stable majority." That is, additional mandates are given to bring its share to 52%. This is intended for the government to operate more stably.
- If no party or coalition can form a majority, parties begin coalition negotiations. If no coalition is formed within 6 days after the election, the law allows for a second round of elections between the two political forces that received the most votes.
According to the results of the second round, the winning side is given the additional mandates needed to form a government.
Thus, if Nikol Pashinyan's "Civil Contract" Party obtains 50+1% of the mandates in parliament, it can form the government alone.
If the ruling "Civil Contract" does not obtain a majority in parliament, and in return the opposition forms a coalition by winning more mandates together, the latter can also form the government.
Currently, the main political forces that are candidates to enter parliament - the "Strong Armenia" and "Armenia" blocs, the "Prosperous Armenia" and "Wings of Unity" parties - are the main opposition to Nikol Pashinyan.
This means that if Pashinyan's party does not win 50+1% of the mandates in the election and cannot form a coalition, it may lose.
Some analysts believe that the main goal of the opposition is not to take first place, but to prevent the ruling party from achieving a stable majority. If a majority to form a government is not formed, the option of a second round between the two leading forces may come to the fore. In this case, the opposition will try to unite.
In recent polls, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party appears to be significantly ahead of its rivals.
A.Gorkhmaz
