Less than a month remains until the parliamentary elections in Armenia. The elections, scheduled for June 7, will determine the 101 members of the country's parliament.
Currently, the main candidates and political forces are:
- Nikol Pashinyan - leader of the ruling "Civil Contract" Party and current prime minister. Robert Kocharyan - one of the main figures of the "Armenia" bloc and considered one of the strongest figures of the opposition. Samvel Karapetyan - one of the main figures behind the "Strong Armenia" alliance. Gagik Tsarukyan - leader of the "Prosperous Armenia" Party and has returned to the political arena. Edmon Marukyan - leads the "Bright Armenia" Party and was previously an ally of Pashinyan. Hayk Marutyan - former Yerevan mayor and leader of the "New Force" movement.
According to the results of the third phase of a voter behavior study conducted by EVN Report and Armenian Election Study (ArmES) before the parliamentary elections, support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's activities continues to increase. The number of those supporting the Prime Minister's activities rose from 36% in the first poll to 47.2% in the second phase, and to 49% in the latest results. At the same time, the number of those dissatisfied with his activities also decreased. This indicator was 45% in the first poll, 35.8% in the second phase, and 33.7% in the current poll.
The poll also shows a change in views within Armenian society regarding the country's future direction. 44% of respondents believe that Armenia is developing in the right direction. This indicator shows an increase compared to previous phases. Currently, the share of those who think the country is going in the wrong direction is 30.9%.
According to the study, the ruling "Civil Contract" Party significantly outpaces its main rivals in the election race. However, the party is not yet able to secure the majority of votes needed to form a government alone in parliament.
Based on the voting intentions of the poll participants:
-"Civil Contract" Party - 32.5%, "Strong Armenia" Party - 10.1%, "Armenia Alliance" - 4.4%, "Prosperous Armenia" Party - 3.4% support.
There are several serious reasons for the increasing public trust in Pashinyan. There are several serious reasons for the increasing public trust in Pashinyan. First of all, a significant part of Armenian society does not want former government representatives to return to power. Especially the Robert Kocharyan era is associated by many Armenian voters with corruption, oligarchic rule, and political pressure. For this reason, the main figures of the opposition cannot generate as much trust in a large part of society as before.
Another important factor is Pashinyan's continued status as a symbol of the 2018 "velvet revolution." He is still perceived by certain voter groups as a "politician from the people," a leader fighting against the old system. This image maintains its influence, especially among young people and the urban electorate.
Although Pashinyan's ratings significantly dropped after the Second Karabakh War in 2020, he managed to change the political agenda in the subsequent period. A part of Armenian society believes that stability in the region and the opening of communications are important for the country's long-term development. In this regard, Pashinyan's policy aimed at normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey gains some support.
In addition, the Pashinyan government pays special attention to expanding relations with the West. Supporters of rapprochement with the European Union and the United States present him as a leader trying to pursue a more balanced course in Armenia's foreign policy. The fact that the main figures of the opposition are more associated with a pro-Russian policy leads some voters to prefer Pashinyan. Experts believe that the fragmented state of the opposition is also one of the main factors increasing the ruling party's advantage. Currently, a unified political center against Pashinyan has not been formed in Armenia. Serious disagreements, both ideological and leadership-wise, persist in the opposition camp.
The results of sociological surveys show that if no serious political change occurs before the election, the "Civil Contract" Party will remain the leading political force. However, whether the party can again form a government alone in parliament remains one of the main topics of discussion.
