French President Emmanuel Macron, who participated in the VIII summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan, made a number of remarkable statements. President Macron noted that Armenia was a "satellite" of Russia until about 4-5 years ago. In addition, Macron emphasized that there are still about 4,000 Russian soldiers and more than 1,000 border guards in Armenia. He stressed that Russia should not be trusted and put forward a kind of alternative for Armenia.
The probability that Russia, already in a difficult situation in the Ukrainian war, will withdraw its military presence in Armenia and leave the South Caucasus once and for all in the coming period is increasing day by day.
In a statement to Modern.az, former Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov said that most of Macron's speech was about Pashinyan and Armenia. General European topics were not widely covered, and this somehow reminded of some aspects of Pashinyan's meeting with Putin in the Kremlin at the beginning of April:
"Macron was trying to convince French and Armenian society that Russia could not protect Armenia from defeat. They made many promises. Here, I believe that there is naturally competition between France and Russia. Everyone understands that France's capabilities to conduct any large-scale military operations abroad and establish its bases are very limited. For example, according to their military doctrine, the number of their military personnel abroad cannot exceed 9,000. They have a military presence in Africa, South America. It is not possible to establish extensive military cooperation in Armenia, which is completely far from France in terms of communication, and replace Russia, as everyone understands. This speech was intended to create a kind of image, Macron's main goal is different."
T. Zulfugarov noted that the current geopolitical situation is such that there is a war both in the north and south of the South Caucasus:
"It can be said that the real Europe-Asia corridor passes through the South Caucasus. France's attempt to gain a foothold or influence in Azerbaijan through pressure failed. It is also known how former president Zurabishvili, France's hope in Georgia, was seen off. Now hope remains for the unfortunate Armenians. In general, Armenians themselves are not the decisive elements of these communications. They can only act as additional elements. Macron wants France and the European Union to make empty promises as always to raise their prestige. Allegedly, they will help Armenia militarily. They will give only 30 million euros. This speech is a kind of attempt by Macron, who feels his fiasco, to present himself positively to the Armenian public. Therefore, if we look at the speech, we will see that he was trying to justify Pashinyan."
T. Zulfugarov believes that Russia is expected to withdraw from the South Caucasus, but it does not seem convincing that France will replace it:
"This process is happening because Russia is weakening. As its capabilities are exhausted, Russia is forced to withdraw its military equipment from Armenia and send it to the Ukrainian front. Otherwise, the Kremlin does not want to give up a outpost like Armenia. Now they understand that this outpost is in danger. They have to get permission from Zelensky to hold a parade so that there is no attack. That is, the situation has changed. As a result of these processes, Russia will leave the region. Macron simply states that they are ready to replace Russia if it withdraws. It would be naive to take them seriously. After 2020, France made many promises, but did not fulfill any of them. Because they did not want to spend money. On the other hand, Armenia also understands well that there is Turkey on one side and Azerbaijan on the other. What can France do there? France cannot pose a threat to either Russia or the US. The US unequivocally supports the TRIPP project. The US keeps 1500 troops in its embassy in Armenia. The US is already in Armenia."
