A new sociological survey conducted in Armenia shows that the ruling "Civil Contract" party, chaired by Nikol Pashinyan, continues to maintain its leading position, but no longer has a strong advantage to form a government alone.
Modern.az reports that according to the study conducted on June 1-3, among citizens who stated their readiness to participate in the elections, the "Civil Contract" party collects 29.6% of the votes, while its main rival, Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia" bloc, gets 26.4%.
The difference is very small, and according to the authors of the study, this can significantly change the political balance during the election campaign.
2050 people participated in the survey, and the error rate was ±2.2%. The predicted voter turnout is estimated at 55%, while 45% of respondents refused to answer.
According to the survey, the distribution of political forces among voters who have made their decision is as follows:
"Civil Contract" (MM) – 29.6%
"Strong Armenia" bloc – 26.4%
Other parties (total) – 17.5%
"Armenia" bloc – 14.8%
"Prosperous Armenia" party – 6.1%
"Wings of Unity" party – 5.6%
One of the main results of the study is the weakening of the ruling party's positions. The report notes that the "Civil Contract" is effectively losing its monopoly on power, as the absence of an absolute majority makes it difficult to form a government alone and increases the need for coalition negotiations.
At the same time, the indicators of the "Strong Armenia" bloc show serious competition. The authors of the survey state that in the event of effective mobilization of the dissatisfied electorate, the opposition camp can significantly change the balance of power.
The survey also points to the possible coalition structure of the future parliament. According to forecasts, at least five main political forces can enter the parliament, which can turn small parties into decisive players in the formation of the government coalition.
