The long-running war in Yemen has once again entered a critical phase.
Modern.az reports that the situation on the front has unexpectedly changed after the Saudi-backed government forces launched an offensive against the Houthis on the Red Sea coast.
In the first days, government forces based in Aden and supported by Riyadh were able to advance north and capture certain territories. However, after the mobilization call by the Houthis - the "Ansar Allah" movement - the situation began to change in their favor. According to local sources, the involvement of tribal forces on the side of the Houthis allowed them to organize their defense and launch a counter-offensive.
It is claimed that in the last 24 hours, the Houthis have regained control of approximately 2,600 square kilometers of territory along the Red Sea coast. According to reports, the Houthis have entered the strategically important city of Mocha and have besieged the city of Taiz. There are also reports that three brigades of government forces have surrendered.
If this dynamic is maintained, it is possible that the Houthis will soon advance towards the city of Qureyra and the strategic peninsula near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Images show the Houthis on the road leading to Aden. The Houthis' successes are not limited to Yemen's internal political struggle. "Ansar Allah" is considered an allied force with Iran, and Tehran has long been considered one of the movement's main regional partners.
In the current situation, the threat to Bab al-Mandab also creates a significant strategic opportunity for Iran. Because against the backdrop of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the loss of control over this strait at the entrance to the Red Sea could simultaneously put pressure on two main energy arteries of the Middle East. A Reuters analysis published in July also noted that Iran could use the Bab al-Mandab direction after Hormuz as an additional pressure point against the US. Tehran officially denies direct control over the Houthis. Nevertheless, in recent days, against the backdrop of intensifying attacks against Saudi Arabia, Iran's role in regional processes has once again become one of the main topics of discussion.
The Houthis' entry into Mocha and their advance towards Bab al-Mandab also pose a serious risk to energy markets. Bab al-Mandab is one of the main sea passages connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The closure of this route or its transformation into a dangerous zone could force oil tankers traveling from Saudi Arabia to Asian markets to change their routes.
The impact of this is already being felt in the energy market. According to recent data, the price of Brent crude oil has risen to around $108.
According to Reuters' calculations, a complete closure of Bab al-Mandab could create a new surge in oil prices. Although the existence of alternative routes would somewhat mitigate the blow, a sharp increase in shipping time and costs is inevitable.
For this reason, the Houthis' consolidation in the southern part of the Red Sea is now a serious problem not only for Saudi Arabia and Yemen, but also for the global energy market. Another reason for the further complication of the situation is Pakistan's open political support for Saudi Arabia.
Islamabad strongly condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia on September 8 and declared its support for the kingdom's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif also condemned the attacks on Saudi civilian and energy facilities. Previously, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that attacks against Saudi Arabia could trigger the recently signed Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Pakistan defense agreement.
However, on September 10, the Pakistani government announced that a military response was not currently under discussion. This means that Islamabad does not yet intend to directly join the Yemen war, but maintains its political and security support for Saudi Arabia's defense. If the current situation remains unchanged, the Houthis' next target could be to expand their positions towards Aden.
If such a scenario materializes, "Ansar Allah" could not only consolidate its positions in a large part of the Red Sea, but also gain control over access to Bab al-Mandab. This would mean a serious military-political blow for Saudi Arabia and a new crisis for the US in terms of energy and maritime security in the Middle East. The most dangerous scenario is the combination of the Iran-Houthis-Bab al-Mandab line with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. In such a case, the simultaneous risk to two important energy routes in the Middle East could further raise oil prices and seriously disrupt global shipping.
Currently, the reported advances of the Houthis are battlefield claims that require confirmation. However, if the reports of the capture of a strategic point like Mocha are true, the center of gravity of the war in Yemen could once again shift to the Red Sea coast.
It should be noted that currently, 1 barrel of Azerbaijani oil reaches $119. In this year's state budget of Azerbaijan, the average price of 1 barrel of "Azeri Light" brand Azerbaijani oil was calculated at 65 US dollars.
