Ukraine has been inflicting heavy blows on Russia with drones and ballistic missiles in recent days.
Political scientist Tofig Abbasov told Modern.az that one of the main goals of the escalation observed around Ukraine is to prolong the war and increase socio-political discontent within Russia.
"There are several reasons for such an escalation, and all of them are quite serious. We saw at the 36th NATO summit that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was, so to speak, in the spotlight. He is trying to get material, military, and moral support from the West at all costs so that the war is not stopped. Until recently, in his strategy - I would call these tactical moves rather than a strategy - there was such an approach that 'we will make the lives of the Russian people difficult'. That is, a situation should be created where Russian society gets tired of the government."
According to him, at the last NATO summit, the main goal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was to continue military, financial, and political support from the West. The expert believes that the currently applied approach is aimed at creating discontent against the government in Russian society. Abbasov, stating that civilian infrastructure and areas affecting people's daily lives are targeted for this purpose, emphasized that this is an integral part of hybrid warfare technologies.
The political scientist noted that although Western circles are trying to put maximum pressure on Russia, Moscow has enough resources to wage a long-term war. In his opinion, Ukraine's capabilities directly depend on the support from the West, and this factor will play an important role in the future fate of the war.
Tofig Abbasov also commented on US President Donald Trump's statements about peace. He believes that although Trump's statements attract attention, no serious political mechanisms are visible behind them. According to the expert, the US president's frequently changing statements raise questions both in Europe and within NATO.
The political scientist emphasized that Russia makes its decisions regarding Ukraine not based on external pressures, but in accordance with its own interests. For this reason, he does not believe that Donald Trump's calls will seriously affect Moscow's position.
"I also believe that the Russian Federation does not take Donald Trump's statements seriously on the issue of Ukraine. Moscow will never act on instructions or insistence from outside. Whenever it considers that stopping the war is in its interests, it will make that decision itself. I do not believe that this will happen at Donald Trump's insistence."
According to Abbasov, no significant changes are expected in the course of the Ukrainian war or in the positions of the parties in the near future.
Nigar Rustamzade
