Discussions surrounding the future of Russia's 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia, have entered a new and more acute phase. Recently, local experts and political circles close to the government have more frequently raised the issue of pre-election economic restrictions imposed by Moscow on Yerevan. It is reported that the material damage suffered by Armenia due to Russia's recent economic actions must be accurately calculated. Against this backdrop, the 102nd military base located in Gyumri has been chosen as the main target.
This military base was established after the collapse of the USSR, under the pretext of regional security balance. In 2010, an agreement signed between then-Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan extended the base's stay in Armenia until 2044. The most criticized aspect of the existing agreements is that Russia pays no rent to Armenia for this strategic territory. Today, the Yerevan leadership openly states that this clause contradicts the country's sovereignty and economic interests.
The most contentious part of the discussions concerns the maintenance costs of the base. According to existing agreements, Armenia has undertaken exactly 50% of the total financial burden required for the operation of this base. In other words, Armenia is effectively funding the military contingent of a foreign country located on its territory from its own budget. A consensus is already forming within the political elite in Yerevan that it is time to end this "financial sacrifice."
According to recent calculations, official Yerevan spends approximately 60 million dollars annually in direct and indirect costs for the maintenance of the 102nd military base in Gyumri. For a country facing economic difficulties, this amount is a considerably large figure. Political circles demand that these funds should be spent on strengthening Armenia's own national army, not on Russia's military interests.
It is no secret where the annual 60 million dollars allocated from the Armenian budget are spent. This amount includes the daily high-quality nutrition of Russian servicemen, the material and technical supply of the base, and complex logistics costs. It doesn't end there; a portion of the salary fund for Russian officers and soldiers, as well as the supply of ammunition used for military exercises conducted at the base's training grounds, are also paid for by Armenia.
Within the Armenian government and society, a firm decision is already forming to refuse these expenses. Experts close to the government declare that Armenia is officially preparing to renounce this 50% financial obligation.
According to experts, Armenia's demand for compensation or rent for the base, as well as its refusal to pay current expenses, could deal a heavy blow to Moscow's military positions in the region. This development is not merely an economic dispute, but the first and most serious political signal from Yerevan towards a reconsideration of Russia's military presence in the South Caucasus.
Representatives of the ruling "Civil Contract" Party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and analysts associated with them have repeatedly sharply criticized Russia's role in security in recent years. In their opinion, Russia has not fulfilled its allied obligations towards Armenia. For this reason, bringing up the financial issue of the base is a key component of Yerevan's new strategy to completely rebuild relations with Moscow.
The issue does not end with simply demanding money. The main ultimate goal discussed behind the scenes in Yerevan is the complete withdrawal of the 102nd military base from Armenian territory. The political leadership believes that this base no longer serves Armenia's security; on the contrary, it isolates the country from Western projects and restricts its sovereignty.
The Armenian government wants to unilaterally or bilaterally change the military agreement signed in 2010 and valid until 2044. Yerevan is preparing legal mechanisms to add new clauses to the agreement regarding the cessation of the base's financing and its gradual reduction.
The logistical support and transport corridors provided by Armenia for the base's operations are also under threat. Yerevan plans to minimize the base's movement and supply capabilities by cutting these logistics costs. This effectively means militarily paralyzing the base.
But why is Armenia still not taking decisive legal steps to implement these actions officially? The answer lies in Yerevan's strategic calendar: the Armenian leadership is simply waiting for the signing of a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The moment the peace agreement is signed, there will be no legitimate "security" pretext for the Russian military base to remain in Armenia.
Armenia's cut of the annual 60 million dollar aid will directly lead to the cessation of material and technical supply. All processes, from utility services to the renovation of the internal infrastructure of military units, will fall on Russia, which will be an additional burden on Moscow's already sanctioned budget.
Local experts ask society: why should the Armenian taxpayer insure the salary fund of a Russian officer and contract soldier in Gyumri? The abolition of this financial clause is being prepared as one of the biggest "successes" that the government will present to the people in the domestic political arena of Armenia.
Against the backdrop of Yerevan's attempts to move away from Moscow and closer to the European Union and the USA, the 102nd base plays the role of the biggest obstacle. The Armenian government understands that as long as Russian boots remain in the country, it is impossible to receive serious security guarantees from the West. Therefore, financial cuts are also a demonstration of loyalty to the West.
The Armenian leadership is compiling official statistics of the damage caused by the artificial obstacles created by Russia at the Lars checkpoint in recent years, and the bans imposed on Armenian cognac and agricultural products. This damage will be put forward to the other side as a condition for compensation with the money given to the Gyumri base.
For now, no final and official decision in this direction has been announced to the public by the Armenian government. However, the increasing prominence of the topic in the country's political agenda, parliamentary commissions, and media indicates that an official step is very close. The government is simply forming a legal basis to neutralize potential harsh reactions from Moscow.
This strategy, which Armenia plans to implement immediately after the peace agreement, will change the geopolitical map of the entire South Caucasus. The cutting of funding for the Russian base and its subsequent withdrawal will mean the end of Moscow's 200-year military-political dominance in the region.
According to the Armenian government's plan, the peace agreement to be signed with Azerbaijan will completely free Yerevan's hands. The morning after that day, an official note will be sent to Moscow, presenting a concrete timeline for changing the terms of the agreement, stopping the annual 60 million dollar funding, and the 102nd military base leaving Armenia.
