After the collapse of the Soviet Union, one of Russia's main military strongholds in the South Caucasus is still located in the Armenian city of Gyumri. The 102nd Russian military base has been one of the main elements of the military-political landscape of the region for more than 30 years.
Modern.az presents an article about the 102nd Russian military base, which has been the main topic of discussion in recent days.
The 102nd military base in Gyumri is of particular importance for Moscow in terms of Russia's military presence in the South Caucasus. Russia is interested in its continued presence in Armenia: the base's location near the border with NATO member Turkey is also of particular importance for Russia.
It is interesting that despite serious problems in Armenia's relations with Russia in recent years, Yerevan's de facto freezing of its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and its expansion of military-political cooperation with the West, the 102nd base is still operational.
Moreover, its legal term of operation has been extended until 2044.
But how was this base deployed in Armenia and why is Moscow interested in maintaining military forces in Gyumri?
A military unit inherited from the Soviet army
The 102nd military base was formalized in 1995 based on an interstate agreement signed between Moscow and Yerevan. But it would not be entirely correct to count its history from 1995.
During the Soviet era, large military formations of the USSR were located in the territory of present-day Gyumri - then Leninakan. After the collapse of the USSR, the main part of the Russian military contingent remaining in Armenia was formed on the basis of this military infrastructure.
Thus, the Soviet 127th Motor Rifle Division in Gyumri was transformed into the Russian 102nd military base in 1994.
However, the legal status of the base was formalized a little later.
On March 16, 1995, an agreement was signed between Moscow and Yerevan on the deployment of the Russian military base on the territory of Armenia. The document became one of the main legal bases for cooperation between Russia and Armenia in the field of security. The agreement entered into force in 1997.
The logic of the agreement was clear: Russia maintains military forces in Armenia, and in return, Moscow plays an important role in ensuring Armenia's security.
At that time, this was a particularly important issue for Armenia.
Because at that time Armenia had just emerged from a war with Azerbaijan, the border with Turkey was closed, and the security system in the region was still in its formative stage.
Why Gyumri?
To answer this question, it is enough to look at the map.
The city of Gyumri is located very close to Armenia's border with Turkey.
This gives the base the status of a Russian military stronghold strategically located on the geopolitical map of the South Caucasus, not just a military facility within Armenia.
Gyumri is important for Russia in several respects:
- Proximity to the Turkish border;
- Maintaining a military presence in the South Caucasus;
- Ensuring military cooperation with Armenia;
- The ability to influence the balance of forces in the region;
- Preservation of the only large permanent military stronghold of the Russian army in the South Caucasus.
The 102nd base is also considered an important element of Russia's military policy in the post-Soviet space.
The first agreement was for 25 years, what happened next?
This is one of the most interesting points here.
According to the 1995 agreement, the initial term of the Russian military base's stay in Armenia was set at 25 years.
That is, according to that agreement, the base was supposed to leave Armenia in 2020.
But in 2010, the situation changed radically.
On August 20, 2010, Armenia and Russia added Protocol No. 5 to the agreement.
This protocol extended the base's stay in Armenia from 25 to 49 years, extending the term until 2044. The Russian side subsequently ratified the document, and the protocol entered into force on July 6, 2011.
Thus, the Russian military presence, which was supposed to end in 2020, was extended for another 24 years.
The 2010 protocol also expanded the base's mission in a certain sense.
In the 1995 agreement, the base was mainly associated with the protection of Russia's interests and security issues along the external borders of the former USSR.
In 2010, an important change was made to the document.
According to the new formula, the Russian base, together with the Armenian Armed Forces, was to ensure Armenia's security.
That is, Moscow's military participation legally became more explicitly part of Armenia's security system.
In return, Russia also undertook to assist in providing the Armenian armed forces with modern weapons and military equipment.
In the statements made by the Russian side at that time, one of the main goals of the base's stay in Armenia was stated as maintaining regional stability and ensuring the security of the two countries.
According to the 2010 amendments, the base's activities can be automatically extended even after 2044.
Therefore, it is not entirely correct to say that "the base will definitely close in 2044."
How strong is the 102nd base?
Different figures have been announced regarding the personnel and armament of the base in different years. Various sources indicate around 3-5 thousand servicemen. Russia itself does not regularly disclose exact operational indicators.
For example, information released by the Russian parliament in 2011 stated that there were approximately 3.5 thousand servicemen at the base and the presence of three motor rifle regiments, an artillery regiment, and a separate tank battalion.
Other sources indicate that the total contingent can reach approximately 5 thousand people.
The military capabilities of the base have included tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored vehicles, artillery systems, and air defense systems at various times.
The capabilities of Russian military aviation in Armenia are located at Erebuni airfield near Yerevan, as well as in Gyumri.
MiG-29 fighters, Mi-24 attack and Mi-8 transport helicopters are deployed here.
In this regard, it is not correct to imagine the 102nd base as just a facility consisting of barracks and equipment in Gyumri.
This is part of a broader system of Russian military capabilities on Armenian territory.
What is Gyumri's main advantage for Russia?
The most important issue is geography.
Russia and Armenia do not have a common land border.
For this reason, the logistics of the Russian military contingent in Armenia have always been complex.
However, despite this, Moscow maintains its permanent military presence in the South Caucasus by maintaining a military base in Gyumri.
Gyumri is one of the main factors increasing Russia's military-political weight in the region.
In a period of increasing confrontation between Russia and NATO in Europe, the Turkish factor comes to the fore even more.
Because Turkey is a NATO member.
Thus, the Russian base in Gyumri is actually a Russian military facility located near the border of NATO member Turkey.
Base for Armenia: security guarantee or dependence?
For many years, a large part of the Armenian political elite considered Russia's military presence as one of the main guarantees of the country's security.
Starting from the 1990s, Armenia's security system was built on military cooperation with Russia, CSTO membership, and bilateral defense mechanisms with Russia.
However, after the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia's attitude towards Russia's security guarantees changed significantly.
Especially after the 2020 war, the question began to be raised more often in Yerevan:
If Russia is the main guarantor of Armenia's security, then why was Moscow's role not sufficient during the 44-day war in 2020?
This question became one of the main reasons for the change in attitude towards Russia in Armenian society.
Pashinyan's government takes a cautious stance
During the rule of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, relations with Russia have changed sharply compared to previous years.
Yerevan has de facto frozen its participation in the CSTO, expanded military cooperation with Western countries, and begun to diversify Armenia's security policy.
However, Yerevan's position on the 102nd base issue is more cautious.
Because the 2010 agreement legally ensures the base's operation until 2044.
In addition, the withdrawal of the Russian military base does not only mean the closure of a military facility. It would mean the restructuring of Armenia's security system.
In recent years, an interesting process has taken place in Armenia.
Official Yerevan has begun to gradually reduce the activities of Russian border guards in the country.
In 2024, Russian border guards were withdrawn from Zvartnots airport.
The withdrawal of Russian border guards from some parts of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and, in a later stage, from some checkpoints on Armenia's border with Turkey and Iran, has also occurred.
But the 102nd base remains.
This fact itself says a lot.
That is, although Armenia is trying to reduce Russia's role in its security system, Moscow's largest military stronghold in the country is still in Gyumri.
102nd base - Azerbaijan and Turkey
It is also appropriate to touch upon the importance of the 102nd base for Armenia in relation to Azerbaijan.
Russia's presence in Armenia's military-political system affected the balance of forces in the region.
After 2020, the increase in Azerbaijan's military superiority, the collapse of the separatist regime in Karabakh in 2023, and the beginning of a new stage in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have also changed the previous strategic functions of the 102nd base in a certain sense.
Previously, the Russian factor in Armenia's security architecture was mainly considered in the context of confrontation with Azerbaijan, but now the peace process in the region, Armenia's relations with Turkey, and rapprochement with the West come to the fore.
Gyumri is very close to the Turkish border. For this reason, the 102nd base is a noteworthy military-political factor for Ankara as well. On the one hand, Turkey is a NATO member. On the other hand, a Russian military base operates near the border of one of the countries located on NATO's eastern flank.
Thus, the base in Gyumri is located on one of the possible geopolitical lines of the Russia-NATO confrontation in the South Caucasus.
When talking about the 102nd base, Iran should not be forgotten either.
Iran is located south of Armenia, and Moscow's military presence in the South Caucasus is also important in terms of regional processes related to Iran.
Does the base increase tension in the region?
According to Russia's position, the base ensures Armenia's security and serves strategic stability in the region.
The 1995 agreement itself states that one of the purposes of deploying the base on Armenian territory is to maintain peace and stability in the region.
But according to another approach, the presence of a permanent military base of a foreign state in the South Caucasus preserves Moscow's influence in the region and can limit Armenia's independent security policy.
This view has strengthened especially in the context of Armenia's distancing itself from Russia in recent years.
Thus, the same base can be seen as a "security guarantee" for one side and a "geopolitical tool of dependence" for the other.
Why did Russia keep the base for so long?
Here, a broader geopolitical picture needs to be considered.
In 2010, Russia had already lost its military bases in Georgia.
The issue of the Gabala radar station on Azerbaijani territory was of a different nature.
In such a situation, Armenia had become Russia's main remaining military stronghold in the South Caucasus.
That is why the extension of the 102nd base until 2044 was of serious importance in terms of preserving Moscow's strategic position in the region.
Analyzes conducted at that time also noted that the 2010 extension strengthened Russia's position in the South Caucasus.
By extending the military base agreement in 2010, Moscow legally ensured its long-term military presence in the South Caucasus.
When can the 102nd base be closed?
Legally, the most important date is 2044.
However, this does not automatically mean that the base will be closed that year.
According to the terms of the agreement, if one of the parties does not send a timely notice to terminate the agreement, the document can be extended for subsequent five-year periods.
Therefore, the future of the 102nd base will actually depend on three main factors:
1. Armenia's future security doctrine;
2. The direction in which Russia-Armenia relations develop;
3. How Azerbaijan-Armenia and Armenia-Turkey relations are formed in the South Caucasus.
Now, at a time when Armenia is trying to distance itself from Russia, a completely different question stands before this base: How will the Russian military base in Gyumri fit into this system as Yerevan builds a new security system?
The answer to this question can determine not only Armenia-Russia relations, but also the future security architecture of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, and the South Caucasus as a whole.
A.Gorkhmaz
