The peace-building process between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues. However, Azerbaijan's main demand for a final peace agreement is still being delayed by Armenia. The Armenian side has not yet amended its constitution. The process is gradually being prolonged. On the other hand, we are witnessing Armenia's rearmament.
In a statement to Modern.az, Rasim Musabayov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, stated that Armenia lost a large amount of weapons during the Second Karabakh War and the anti-terrorist measures carried out by Azerbaijan in September 2023:
“There is no need to exaggerate. According to the Armenians themselves, they lost about 2-3 billion dollars worth of weapons during the Second Karabakh War and Azerbaijan's one-day anti-terrorist operation. Now they cannot buy weapons from Russia, no one gives them free weapons. That's why they buy weapons from India and France. But so far, they have not even approached 30 percent of Azerbaijan's military capabilities. Armenia's thinking about revenge would be tantamount to suicide. In the near and medium term, they have no opportunity to oppose Azerbaijan.”
The MP linked the delay in signing the peace agreement to Armenia's procedures for adopting a new constitution. He noted that Azerbaijan's demand is the removal of the provision in the preamble of the Armenian constitution, which refers to the Declaration of Independence.
According to R. Musabayov, Armenia is trying to resolve this issue by adopting a new constitution. For this, stages such as drafting the document, agreeing it among supporters, passing it through parliament, and submitting it to a referendum are envisaged.
“It is one thing for the amendment to the constitution to be put to a vote in a referendum at Azerbaijan's request. In this case, there are risks associated with achieving a positive result, because a boycott call can also be effective. That's why Nikol Pashinyan wants to come up with the option of adopting a new constitution. The adoption of a new constitution, however, requires certain procedures,” the MP said.
He added that Armenia faces not only the constitutional issue but also other complex issues. These include possible agreements on enclaves and exclaves, as well as discussions about the future of Armenia's relations with the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union.
The MP believes that Azerbaijan should not overemphasize the constitutional issue:
“The less Azerbaijan exaggerates this demand, the greater Nikol Pashinyan's chances of passing the new constitution through parliament and getting it approved in a referendum. Therefore, I see no reason for alarm regarding this issue.”
Regarding the idea that Pashinyan wants to prolong the peace process until 2031, R. Musabayov stated that although Pashinyan spoke about the work he wants to see done by 2031, this does not mean that the peace agreement will be postponed until then. According to the MP, Pashinyan also stated that the process of signing the peace agreement may not be completed in 2026 and could extend until 2027.
“Therefore, it is not correct to say that he wants to prolong the process until 2031. It is not just about changing the preamble of the constitution. The adoption of a new constitution requires separate procedures,” he emphasized.
Armenia's purchase of weapons from France and India will not eliminate Azerbaijan's military superiority. However, the rearmament process may slow down peace talks with Azerbaijan. Armenia's future security depends on constitutional changes and the signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
Political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu, however, stated that no matter how much Armenia arms itself, it is not in a position to reach Azerbaijan's military potential:
“No matter how much Armenia arms itself, whether it buys weapons from France or India, it will not be able to keep up with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's military budget is much larger than Armenia's budget. Next year, Azerbaijan's defense and military expenditures are planned to be around 9 billion manats. Azerbaijan itself produces military equipment and buys modern military equipment and weapons from friendly and partner states.”
According to the political scientist, Armenia's rearmament may slow down the peace process to some extent, but this should not hinder peace-building. In his opinion, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also understands this and realizes that the most beneficial path for his country is to implement constitutional changes and sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
“Pashinyan himself understands that if he does not achieve peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and does not reach relevant agreements, Armenia's situation will become even more difficult. Therefore, despite Armenia's rearmament, I am convinced that the Pashinyan government will continue peace-building with Azerbaijan.”
Elkhan Shahinoglu noted that if Pashinyan delays the peace process and constitutional changes, tensions in the region could increase. According to him, the results of a possible referendum could also seriously affect the situation in the region.
“If a referendum is held and the Armenian society votes against the new constitution, this could mean supporting the old constitution, as well as Azerbaijan's territorial claims. This could automatically escalate the situation in the region. Perhaps that is why Pashinyan prefers not to rush the referendum issue. However, prolonging the process is also risky. Because radical forces, under foreign influence, can escalate the situation in Armenia and come to power. Such a scenario could create conditions for the re-emergence of the threat of war in the region,” the political scientist emphasized.
