An interesting trend is observed in the Azerbaijani social segment regarding the elections held in Armenia. Many consider Nikol Pashinyan's re-election to power to be more expedient. At first glance, this seems paradoxical. Because just a few years ago, Pashinyan was one of the most hated political figures in Azerbaijani society. The same Pashinyan who danced yalli in Shusha, said “Karabakh is Armenia”, and spoke with populist revanchist rhetoric…
So what changed? In fact, it is not Pashinyan who changed. What changed is the geopolitical reality of the region and the balance of power in Azerbaijan. The Patriotic War of 2020 reshaped the geopolitical architecture of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan did not only achieve a military victory. Baku created a new status quo in the region. The weak Azerbaijan of the 1990s, facing economic and political problems, no longer existed. Now there is Azerbaijan with a modern army. There is Azerbaijan playing an important role in Europe's security system with energy diplomacy. There is Azerbaijan that has become the main actor of the Trans-Caspian and Middle Corridor projects. There is a state with strong political leadership and flexible diplomatic institutions. The 44-day war defeated Armenian political thought more than Armenia itself. It was after this that Pashinyan began to accept reality.
Therefore, we must know that the relative loyalty towards Pashinyan in Azerbaijani society is not an emotional factor. This is geopolitical pragmatism. Pashinyan understood that long-term stability in the region depends on the recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Therefore, he accepted that Karabakh is Azerbaijani land and emphasized the importance of signing a peace agreement. He openly declared that the Armenian church is a nest of intrigues and has a destructive effect on political processes. He tried to move away from the line of revanchism.
And we must know that Pashinyan has not actually changed. It is the power of Azerbaijan that changed him. In the 44-day war, the mythology of “Miatsum”, “Great Armenia”, and “invincible Armenian army” collapsed. The Armenian diaspora also saw this. Whether they wanted to or not, they accepted the reality. The reason is very simple, in the geopolitics of the 21st century, not myths, but economy, logistics, energy and military power win. Azerbaijan has become the dominant power in the region in these four components.
In Azerbaijani society, Robert Kocharyan, Samvel Karapetyan and the line they represent are viewed as a hotbed of war. Kocharyan is a symbol of revanchism. He is a carrier of Russia's old influence mechanisms in the South Caucasus. He is a representative of a political school that leads Armenia to confrontation rather than development. When forced to choose between Pashinyan and Kocharyan, a certain part of Azerbaijani society naturally prefers peace rhetoric. This is an approach far from love for Pashinyan. It is a preference for peace.
The paradox is that Pashinyan's main rivals are not Baku, but the revanchist forces within Armenia. The Armenian church, foreign diaspora centers, the former ruling elite and certain geopolitical circles want to return Armenia to the past. Pashinyan, however, is forced to reckon with new realities. Because in the South Caucasus of the 21st century, economic integration, the Zangazur corridor, regional communications and cooperation promise more attractive prospects than war. Today, it is Azerbaijan that dictates the peace agenda in the region. Our national interests do not depend on who comes to power in Armenia. The reason is that a new center of power has formed in the region. The name of this power is Azerbaijan. And precisely for this reason, a certain sympathy for Pashinyan has arisen in Azerbaijani society. This sympathy is not directed at a politician, but stems from the hope for the possibility of peace. Both Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani society choose peace. Winners always think about peace.
Undoubtedly, the leader of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, who is accepted by the world today, has alternatives to talk with Armenia, with or without Pashinyan, on every level. These alternatives stem from the strength of the Azerbaijani people and their unequivocal trust in their leader. Pashinyan's rivals, aware of this, act cautiously regarding victorious Azerbaijan.
Armenia is Azerbaijan's neighbor. In today's elections, we wish peace to neighboring Armenia. In any case, Armenia without peace will burn itself.
