A possible agreement between the US and Iran has raised hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Information is circulating that a 14-point document will be signed between the parties in Geneva on June 19. The potential impacts of the agreement on regional security, energy markets, and global political processes are being discussed. It is also predicted that oil prices will fall with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, which side is the winner of the war, as well as whether the process is sustainable, has become a serious topic of discussion.
Speaking to Modern.az on the topic, Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Ties and an Americanist, stated that expectations for the end of the US-Iran war are becoming increasingly realistic.
"We witnessed one of the most severe wars in the Middle East. Hopes for the end of the US-Iran war are beginning to materialize. A preliminary agreement already exists between the US and Iran. A 14-point document is expected to be signed in Geneva on June 19.
It is not excluded that with the signing of this document, the parties will undertake an obligation not to resort to the use of force again. One of the main issues is the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz to an operational state. The US lifts its blockade, and Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iran abandons its policy of uranium enrichment. The document also contains certain provisions regarding the return of a part of the assets to Iran. Not delaying this process is also one of the main intentions."
The deputy emphasized that the cessation of the war is also in Azerbaijan's favor:
"The Strait of Hormuz allows for approximately 20 percent of global energy shipments. Consequently, over the last 3-4 months, the price of a barrel of oil in the oil market had exceeded 100 dollars. With the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the situation will change. World markets are already reacting to this process, and a decrease in oil prices is observed. Naturally, the decrease in oil prices can continue to a certain extent. The level of prices should be in line with the interests of OPEC countries, which are oil producers. When prices reach a dangerous level, OPEC countries create an artificial shortage by reducing production.
Considering that Azerbaijan is also an oil-producing country, the cessation of the war will not pass without affecting our country. The Azerbaijani state is ready for any risks. All these realities were taken into account when forming the budget.
The most important issue is the end of the war and the establishment of peace. Because, by chance, a global problem could have arisen in our region. Especially the missiles that fell near the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant further increased the danger. If the Bushehr NPP had been damaged, it could have led to more severe consequences than the Chernobyl disaster. As Iran is our neighbor, this was also a serious source of danger for Azerbaijan.
In any case, peace is better than war. Therefore, real steps are being taken towards achieving peace.
It is not excluded that Donald Trump wants to go into the interim parliamentary elections in November as a leader who achieved peace by stopping one of the most severe wars. This is an important factor for him to succeed in the elections.
Trump has stated that after this war ends, he will focus his attention on the Russia-Ukraine war. He intends to go into the November elections as a head of state who has stopped at least two major wars. In this regard, his chances are highly valued."
E. Nasirov emphasized that the US-Iran agreement is a victory for the whole world:
"The US understood that the war with Iran has a global dimension. This is not just a confrontation between Washington and Tehran, but a process that affects the interests of all countries in the world.
I would say that there is no losing side here. The winner is the whole world and humanity. Because the consequences of this war could have expanded further.
The US had no intention of changing the regime in Iran. Such an intention was more often put forward by Israel. For the US, the main issue is that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons. Currently, there are 9 states in the world that possess nuclear weapons, and the US does not want Iran to become the tenth state. Certain results have been achieved in this direction.
At the same time, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is also of great importance for the US. I think this is a great victory for the US.
Iran also preserved its image to some extent. Because there was no regime change in the country. In addition, there is a preliminary agreement on the allocation of 300 billion dollars for the restoration of facilities destroyed by the US. We can only make a definitive statement about this after the memorandum is approved on June 19. However, in any case, financial support from the US is expected for the restoration of destroyed objects and facilities.
The party most concerned about this situation is Israel. Israel takes a completely different and harsher stance regarding the agreements reached between the US and Iran."
