Stratfor, known as the "shadow central intelligence agency," believes that the warming of Armenia-Turkey relations could strengthen Turkey's influence in the region and partially reduce Armenia's dependence on Russia. However, Russia will not allow this process to develop too much.
According to Modern.az, the magazine's analysts note that in recent years, Armenia and Turkey have made attempts to normalize relations after a long period of tension. This has been particularly noticeable after Azerbaijan fully re-established control over the former "Nagorno-Karabakh." At the same time, Yerevan is trying to reduce its dependence on Russia by developing political, economic, and military ties with the West.
Stratfor believes that strengthening relations between Armenia and Turkey could bolster Turkey's position as a regional "middle-tier player" connecting Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, as well as partially weaken Iran's regional influence.
According to analysts, for Armenia, this could mean expanding trade routes and gaining access to Western markets, as well as reshaping foreign economic relations.
Stratfor's article states that relations with Russia are of key importance for both countries and limit the potential for closer ties. Moscow, it is assumed, could use tools of economic influence if it feels that Armenia's relations with Turkey and the West are deepening too much. The article states that the opening of borders may also depend on the internal political situation that will prevail in Armenia after the elections.
