Demographic competition: How Azerbaijan became 4 times superior to Armenia? | Modern.az

The demographic factor is the most fundamental strategic element that determines the geopolitical weight, economic stability, and national security potential of states. In the modern world, the main driving force of military and industrial power directly depends on the volume of intellectual and physical human capital. For this reason, the balance of manpower is an irreplaceable strategic resource that determines the future development limits and resistance to crises of countries. In this context, a comparison of the demographic potential between Azerbaijan and Armenia clearly demonstrates that Baku has a significant advantage over its rival.

Modern.az reports that during the Soviet era after World War II, the number of births in both Azerbaijan SSR and Armenian SSR continuously increased. The ratio of newborns remained relatively stable in favor of Baku, at 2 to 1 or 2.3 to 1. A sharp difference began in the 1990s, after both countries gained independence. During this period, demographic decline was much milder in Azerbaijan compared to Armenia: while the number of births decreased by 42% in Azerbaijan over the decade, this indicator fell by 59% in Armenia. Thanks to this difference, by 2002, the ratio of newborns between neighboring countries rose to 3.44:1.

Demographic growth in the 2000s was also higher in Azerbaijan. While the birth rate increased by 60% in Azerbaijan, this increase was only 35% in Armenia. As a result, a historical record was registered in 2013: 4.13 babies were born in Azerbaijan for every 1 baby born in Armenia.

In the last 13 years, both Caucasian states have observed a decrease in births, both in terms of quality and quantity, and this decrease is somewhat more acute in Armenia. Thanks to this, according to the results of 2025, the ratio has returned to 3.29:1. Azerbaijan's demographic weight in the region has significantly increased, and this factor supports important elements such as the settlement of liberated territories, the growth of the domestic consumption market, and the increase in budget revenues.