The Turkish economy is projected to grow by 3% in 2026.
Modern.az reports, citing BBVA Research, that according to the institution's new assessment, although economic growth in the second quarter of the year was weaker than expected, the annual forecast was maintained at the previous level.
According to BBVA Research, Turkey's gross domestic product increased by 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. This indicator was lower than both BBVA's 3% and the market's 2.9% expectations. Thus, in the first half of the year, the growth of the Turkish economy was 2.5%.
Nevertheless, BBVA Research maintained its 3% economic growth forecast for 2026. The institution considers this possible provided that a cautious economic policy is continued and geopolitical tensions do not further escalate.
The main downside risk for analysts is the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions could increase volatility in energy prices, strengthen inflationary pressures, and affect the external balance of the Turkish economy.
BBVA Research also notes that a weakening in domestic demand was observed in the second quarter, but the activities of export-oriented industries supported economic growth.
