On May 13-15, US leader Donald Trump was on an official visit to China. In addition to relations between the two countries, global issues, as well as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, were also discussed during the meeting.
It is noteworthy that the US and China are coming to a common denominator in this conflict and what position they can choose.
In a statement to Modern.az, Ukrainian political scientist Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing shows that both sides are now trying to stabilize global competition rather than deepen it uncontrollably. The fact that the leaders openly discussed not only trade and Taiwan issues, but also the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, indicates that Washington and Beijing are beginning to see global crises not as separate but as interconnected processes.
"Especially noteworthy is Xi Jinping's statement about 'constructive strategic stable interaction' based on cooperation, managed competition, and controlled disagreements. This is, in fact, Beijing's proposal for a new model of coexistence with the US, that is, a model that accepts competition but tries to prevent direct confrontation. Trump's rhetoric about the US and China participating together in solving global problems also points in a similar direction."
He stated that in this context, the Russia-Ukraine war appears to be treated not as a separate regional problem, but as part of a broader strategic balance encompassing Europe, the Indo-Pacific region, and the Middle East:
"I do not expect any major joint initiatives regarding Ukraine. However, the inclusion of this topic in the negotiations by both leaders indicates that neither side wants the conflict to escalate into a broader international crisis.
The same logic applies to Taiwan and Iran. Beijing called on Washington to act cautiously on the Taiwan issue, and the parties also exchanged views on the Middle East. This indicates an attempt to form informal strategic restraint and communication mechanisms to prevent simultaneous escalation in several key regions of the world."
Russian political scientist, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political Studies Darya Grevtsova stated that several important topics will undoubtedly be discussed during Trump's visit to China:
"Of course, the main focus will be on economic issues, bilateral relations with China. However, the American president will not ignore geopolitical topics either. This includes the issue of ending the war in Ukraine and the situation around Iran.
We know that the Ukrainian crisis is currently the main crisis in the world and therefore is of great importance for all countries, including China. The Chinese leadership has repeatedly stated that it supports stopping the war and peace talks."
She emphasized that China understands that the sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine war limit its markets and increase risks. Therefore, Beijing is trying to encourage world states to lift these sanctions:
"At the same time, China understands that Russia is its neighbor and there is a long border between the two countries. Therefore, Beijing is forced to support Russia as an ally in the fight against the US. The Chinese leadership believes that the US wants to change the government in Russia and establish a puppet government close to itself. This would mean the formation of a pro-Western government near China's borders, which Beijing absolutely does not want and considers a serious threat to itself.
For this reason, China will try to do everything possible for Russia to withstand Western pressure. However, Beijing also wants to reduce the costs it incurs due to cooperation with Moscow. Because the secondary sanctions imposed by the US and Europe also hit Chinese companies."
At the same time, everyone understands that China has a strong economy and sovereignty and is unlikely to collapse even under US and European sanctions:
"The issue of possible US strikes on Iran is also remembered. This primarily means a blow to China. Because in such a situation, oil and gas prices seriously increase, energy supplies from the region are disrupted, and China becomes more dependent on Russia's energy resources. In this regard, Beijing will again try to stand by Russia.
At the same time, it is unlikely that these negotiations between the US and China, conducted from different positions, will yield serious results. Because in Beijing, they understand well that Trump can make beautiful statements now, but after returning to the US, he can take completely different steps. This also happened during the previous visit. At that time, although the parties exchanged pleasantries, the US later imposed serious sanctions against China. In response, China restricted the supply of rare earth metals to the US."
D. Grevtsova stated that against the background of current contradictions and disagreements, it seems unlikely that significant progress will be made on the issue of the Ukraine war. Because, as I mentioned, Russia is one of China's main allies in the fight against the US. Beijing considers the West to be the main culprit of the Ukraine war. Therefore, Putin is both a friend and an important statesman for China. Trump, on the other hand, is perceived more as an emotional and unpredictable politician.
"For the US, the main issue is bilateral relations, especially economic ties. Trump wants the Chinese side to lift restrictions on rare earth metals. That is, Beijing should resume exports of these products to the US. In addition, Washington will try to limit Chinese companies' parallel imports and technological support to Russia. The US president may specifically ask that dual-use products that can be used in the defense sector not be sent to Russia.
One of the main topics of the negotiations will also be the expansion of access for American companies to the Chinese market and Chinese companies to the US market, and the restoration of economic cooperation.
Thus, in the end, the topics of Russia-Ukraine and Iran will remain more in the background in the negotiations. The parties will touch upon these issues, share their positions, but most likely no concrete decisions will be made at those meetings. The main issue is the existence of dialogue and contacts between Trump and Xi Jinping - that is, to show that they are not open enemies, but on the contrary, can reach agreements on certain issues through negotiations.
At the same time, it should be taken into account that China and the US are giant powers of the world economy. Even the smallest agreements or details of understanding they reach can be decisive for the fate of some countries. Therefore, many states are closely following this visit and the possible agreements to be reached between the leaders.
As for Russia, its fate and the war in Ukraine do not depend on China, America, or Europe. The main factor determining this fate is Russia itself, the decisions of the country's leadership, and the actions of the army on the front."
