Western governments have long warned of the risk of a military confrontation between Russia and NATO. However, intelligence services believe that Moscow currently does not want a direct conflict with NATO. But Russia could use hybrid operations and provocations that could lead to a gradual escalation of tensions.
Modern.az reports that the British publication "The Telegraph" has presented 6 main scenarios of such a threat:
1) "Crimean scenario" - Provocations in the Baltic countries - The publication believes that Russia, using the Russian-speaking population, can organize actions under the pretext of their alleged persecution. Against the background of these actions, Russian agents, and then military personnel, may attempt to seize individual territories such as Narva in Estonia or Daugavpils in Latvia. After that, Moscow may deploy troops to the region under the guise of "maintaining peace."
2) Direct invasion - One of the most dangerous, but least likely scenarios, is to attempt to cut off the Suwalki corridor between Poland and Lithuania by attacking simultaneously from Belarus and Kaliningrad. In parallel, Russia could land troops on the Swedish island of Gotland to isolate the Baltic countries from the rest of NATO.
3) "Accidental" intervention - Russia could use a pretext such as the forced landing of a military helicopter near the border. Then a "rescue team" could be sent to the territory of a NATO country to rescue the crew and equipment. A similar method can also be carried out using missiles and drones entering Poland or Romania.
4) False flag operation - The Kremlin could use captured or downed Ukrainian drones to create provocations against NATO countries. For example, an image could be created that a Ukrainian attack against Russia allegedly resulted in drones falling on Polish territory. The goal is to create confrontation among NATO countries and turn them against Ukraine.
5) Diversions in Europe - Attacks that could cause human casualties are possible - for example, a train derailment or a strike on an industrial facility. In this case, Moscow may hope that the West will not dare to respond harshly.
6) Cyberattacks - Russia could attack critical infrastructure, financial markets, or transportation systems. For example, it is possible to paralyze the operations of a major airport or create panic on the stock exchange.
