The Central Election Commission of Armenia officially confirmed the results of the parliamentary elections held on June 7: The “Civil Contract” party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won, gaining an absolute majority in parliament, but failed to secure a constitutional majority that would allow for a referendum on the adoption of a new Constitution.
As is known, the demand for changing the Constitution of Armenia is one of the main conditions for signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
In this regard, many emotional and contradictory reactions have emerged in the media and social networks. From the idea that “Now Azerbaijan will be forced to abandon the demand to change the Constitution of Armenia” to “If Pashinyan has not achieved a constitutional majority, what is the need for peace with Armenia at all?”
According to Modern.az, political scientist Eldar Namazov commented on the future of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. He stated that it is important to understand what is happening in Armenia without emotion. According to the political scientist, more than 40% of Armenian voters voted for political forces with a revanchist agenda. This indicates that signing a peace agreement in the near future is not the most reasonable idea. In other words, Armenian society is not yet ready for peace.
“Just 6 years ago, 99.999% of Armenian voters supported an aggressive approach, not even accepting the return of a part of the occupied territories in exchange for peace. Now they are in the minority, and a large part of the voters vote for peace with Azerbaijan. This shows that Armenian society has changed and is moving towards peace.”
The political scientist said that the majority of voters in Armenia voted for peace with Azerbaijan under conditions where revanchist political forces received open and full support from the Armenian Church, the foreign diaspora, and Russia.
“Especially in Russia, under the leadership of President Putin, an open political stance was taken against the Pashinyan government, and economic sanctions were imposed against Armenia. This makes the electoral success of the Armenian authorities even more significant.”
According to E. Namazov, it is impossible to put pressure on Azerbaijan (regarding the demand to remove territorial claims from the Armenian Constitution), because all serious international actors in the negotiation process have accepted that this demand is justified.
“There may be individual attempts by some individuals who do not know the situation correctly and biased organizations, but Azerbaijan's attitude towards such hypocritical behavior is already well known to the world.”
The political expert said that the issues of a peace agreement and the peace process must be clearly separated.
“A peace agreement can be the beginning of a peace process, and at the same time, a peace process can begin first and lead to a peace agreement at a certain stage. International practice shows that both scenarios are possible depending on political and other conditions.
All this leads to the conclusion that Azerbaijan and Armenia, after these elections, will most likely continue the peace process within predetermined frameworks - the implementation of trilateral (Azerbaijan-Armenia-USA) agreements on the opening of communication lines (Zangezur corridor), the establishment of trade relations, the delimitation and demarcation of borders, and the expansion of public relations. To achieve lasting peace, it is necessary to go through the stage of “coexistence in peace.”
The main indicator of this process should be the reflection of the main parameters of the peace process in the program of the new government of Armenia, which will be approved soon, and the formalization of all agreements on establishing peace in the region by the leadership of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and the USA at the NATO summit to be held in Ankara at the beginning of next month.”
E. Namazov also stated that although the peace process is preferred, our Armed Forces must maintain the numerous advantages gained and be ready for any development scenario in the region.
“Experience shows that this factor plays a decisive role in the transformation of Armenian society towards peace,” he emphasized.
